At a craps table, I have a wager with the house that the shooter will make 4 'the hard way' i.e. {2,2}, at odds of 7:1 (with such bets, it doesn't matter what the shooter himself wants to score).
The shooter, an old man, tosses the dice. Unfortunately he is short-sighted, and can't see what he rolled, so he asks me, 'Can you see a 2 down there?'
To tell the truth, I am a bit near-sighted myself, and a touch hard of hearing, so I answer 'Could you please repeat that?' The old man says, ''What do you see down there? ' and I duly reply, 'I can see a 2, but I'm not sure what the other is'
What is the probability that I won my wager?
What would have been the probability, had I answered the shooter's original question?
re(2): Laying out the possibilities
