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 Could you please repeat that? (Posted on 2016-04-20)

At a craps table, I have a wager with the house that the shooter will make 4 'the hard way' i.e. {2,2}, at odds of 7:1 (with such bets, it doesn't matter what the shooter himself wants to score).

The shooter, an old man, tosses the dice. Unfortunately he is short-sighted, and can't see what he rolled, so he asks me, 'Can you see a 2 down there?'

To tell the truth, I am a bit near-sighted myself, and a touch hard of hearing, so I answer 'Could you please repeat that?' The old man says, ''What do you see down there? ' and I duly reply, 'I can see a 2, but I'm not sure what the other is'

What is the probability that I won my wager?

What would have been the probability, had I answered the shooter's original question?

 Submitted by broll No Rating Solution: (Hide) Charlie gives a very good solution, below. Conclusion: Sometimes it pays to be a bit deaf!

 Subject Author Date re(2): Laying out the possibilities Charlie 2016-04-20 14:53:16 re: Laying out the possibilities tomarken 2016-04-20 14:06:57 Laying out the possibilities Charlie 2016-04-20 10:36:25 Maybe the solution? tomarken 2016-04-20 10:00:23

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