There are four balls in a hat: a blue one, a white one, and two red ones. Now I draw simultaneously two balls, look at them, and announce that at least one of them is red.
What is the chance that the other is red as well?
(In reply to re: Who's right?
Only the 1st reasoning holds water.
I'm too tired now to post a comprehensive answer, maybe late to-night or to-morrow evening.
Meanwhile - address the card deck!