Suppose there's a game in which you have a 45% probability of winning. Let's make it a sedentary game, unlike tennis, so that you don't tire and the probability is always 45%.
Someone proposes a metagame: play a series of the original game, and if you win more games than your opponent, you win. But, there's a proviso: It must be an even number of games, and there's no tie-breaker, so again, it's not like tennis.
Your only strategy is to pick the actual, even, number of games. What's the choice of number of games that will minimize your probability of loss in the metagame?
(In reply to
re: Solution by Steve Herman)
Yep makes sense Steve when you frame it that way, I came to the same realization once I was sufficiently caffeinated this morning. :)
Thanks Charlie, it was a fairly straightforward puzzle but made me rethink some general rules of thumb I’ve relied on in the past.
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Posted by tomarken
on 2020-10-27 14:54:43 |
re(2): Solution
