In the "Not-always-lying politician" problem, what's the probability that a particular sentence is true?

Ans : p=2/3

Solution:

I am referring to the
"Not-always-lying politician" as to one that either tells a lie or the truth, but never 2 lies in a row. No connection to packages of 10 statements and to his initial statements. Denote by p thr probability of present statement to be true. The previous statement awas true with probability p as well,- and was false with a probability 1-p.
Now
p=p*1/2+(1-p)*1
3/2*p=1
...
so p=2/3
collaborating previous results convergence

ady

Posted by Ady TZIDON on 2004-07-03 02:09:44