For the PerplexusBowl match between the Pascal Probabilities and the Random Results, a bookie was offering the following payoffs:
PP to win in normal time, 3 to 2
RR to win in normal time, 2 to 1
PP to win in overtime, 7 to 1
RR to win in overtime, 9 to 1
(The first line means that if you bet $2 on PP to win in normal time, and it does, you get your money back plus $3.)
Without knowing anything about football or the involved teams or the actual probabilities, can you show why these payoffs are illogical?
(In reply to better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)
No need to apologise. I realised that my figures were not the optimum but were chosen for simplicity and were calculated without computer - calculator or even pencil and paper.
Besides, if I offered my Australian bookie a bet of $308.87 to $772.17 she wouldn't take it. It's cash only and she doesn't accept coins!! Not that we have 1 or 2 cent coins anymore.