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Boneheaded Bookie (Posted on 2005-11-26) Difficulty: 3 of 5
For the PerplexusBowl match between the Pascal Probabilities and the Random Results, a bookie was offering the following payoffs:

  • PP to win in normal time, 3 to 2
  • RR to win in normal time, 2 to 1
  • PP to win in overtime, 7 to 1
  • RR to win in overtime, 9 to 1

  • (The first line means that if you bet $2 on PP to win in normal time, and it does, you get your money back plus $3.)

    Without knowing anything about football or the involved teams or the actual probabilities, can you show why these payoffs are illogical?

    See The Solution Submitted by Federico Kereki    
    Rating: 4.0000 (5 votes)

    Comments: ( Back to comment list | You must be logged in to post comments.)
    Some Thoughts No Subject | Comment 7 of 8 |

    so if we know that anyone with a brain could win these things we must assume that the bookie is a retard.... unfortunately that cant be done.... see the payoffs are illlogical for people with brains that look at the numbers... but most amateur sports betters dont.

    amateur sports betters look at stats of the teams and who they think will win... take a recent football game... bengals and colts for example. everyone was pretty sure that the colts were going to win so the safe bet is the colts.. who r now the PP so more people (amateurs) will bet on the PP at 3:2 and the least people would bet on the bengals (RR) at 2:1 unfortunately you cant assume the payoffs were illogical w/o knowing the bookies clients and the teams involved

    these are illogical based on the fact that one team has a slight advantage over the other team. the bookie should lower the odds for the underdog in order to get people to bet out that way hoping for a bigger payout


      Posted by Matt Van Winkle on 2005-11-28 00:48:36
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