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For the PerplexusBowl match between the Pascal Probabilities and the Random Results, a bookie was offering the following payoffs:

• PP to win in normal time, 3 to 2
• RR to win in normal time, 2 to 1
• PP to win in overtime, 7 to 1
• RR to win in overtime, 9 to 1

• (The first line means that if you bet \$2 on PP to win in normal time, and it does, you get your money back plus \$3.)

Without knowing anything about football or the involved teams or the actual probabilities, can you show why these payoffs are illogical?

 See The Solution Submitted by Federico Kereki Rating: 4.0000 (5 votes)

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 Some thoughts Comment 8 of 8 |
Frederico had asked to show why the payoffs are illogical without knowing anything about football, the teams involved, or the actual probabilities.
I do not think this can be accomplished without knowing the rules of the game and the probabilities involved. For instance, suppose the rules of the game resulted in 99% of any all games played to
end in a tie, to include those games that proceeded into overtime. What is the probability a bettor could win any money with placing any combination of the bets offered?
Even knowing in realityt that ties have a small probability of occurrance, they do exist. Thus - contrary to the explaination in the problem's solution - no actual bet limited to those that are offered is ascertained to have a positive return.

 Posted by Dej Mar on 2013-04-11 05:15:04

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