A man has to win two games in a row in order to win a prize. In total, he has to play only three games. The opponents are weak or strong. He has to at least play one strong opponent, and he cannot play consecutively two weak opponents. What sequence should he choose to play?
(In reply to Too simple
by Old Original Oskar!)
I believe Old Original Oskar is correct.
In a program simulation of 1,000,000 tournaments, with the odds of beating a weak opponent at 70% and the odds of beating a strong opponent at only 30%, the results were a 27% chance of winning the tournament in the weak-strong-weak pattern, but 36% against the strong-weak-strong pattern.
It's a paradox that defies common sense, but that's why they call this "perplexus".
Edited on August 1, 2006, 11:25 am
Posted by Penny
on 2006-08-01 09:44:22