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Black and Blue Transaction (Posted on 2010-02-14) Difficulty: 3 of 5
From bag A containing 4 black and 8 blue marbles, 6 marbles are transferred into an empty bag B. Three marbles are now drawn from bag B, and each of them happens to be black.

Determine the probability that a fourth marble drawn from bag B will be black, given that:

(I) The first three marbles are returned to bag B.

(II) None of the first three marbles is returned to bag B.

No Solution Yet Submitted by K Sengupta    
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re: solution Comment 2 of 2 |
(In reply to solution by Charlie)

Charlie. I've been trying to match your solution to this problem with a Monte Carlo approach, but with limited success.
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the second part of your formula for the 'overall a priori probability..' seems to relate to 4 balls being drawn rather than 3.
  Posted by Harry on 2010-02-16 15:38:55

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