perplexus.info :: Probability : Known and Unknown Balls

Known and Unknown Balls (Posted on 2010-05-19)

An urn contains 6 green balls and an unknown number, which is ≤ 6, of blue balls. Three balls are drawn successively at random, and not replaced and are all found to be blue.

Determine the probability that a green ball will be drawn at the next draw.

See The Solution Submitted by K Sengupta

Rating: 5.0000 (1 votes)

Comments: ( Back to comment list | You must be logged in to post comments.)

Posterior probabilities

Comment 4 of 4 |

I concur with Charlie's analysis.

Just to be clear,

(a) Bayesian analysis can be applied with any a priori distribution, not just uniform

(b) Nothing better than a uniform priori probability distribution is available. In other words, a priori

blue probability

0 1/7

1 1/7

2 1/7

3 1/7

4 1/7

5 1/7

6 1/7

3 6.05%

4 16.94%

5 30.80%

6 46.20%

Posted by Steve Herman on 2010-05-20 10:00:38

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