A gambler throws a die and tells the score. He tells truth 3/4 of the times that he speaks and randomly lies 1/4 of the times that he speaks. If he says it is a six, what is the probability that he actually got a six?
The probability is 75% that he is telling the truth, thus there is a 75% probability that it is a 6 . . .
. . .
unless it happens to be a 4sided die, in which case there is a 100% probability that it is not a 6.

Posted by hoodat
on 20101025 15:31:32 