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Lying gambler (Posted on 2010-10-21) Difficulty: 1 of 5
A gambler throws a die and tells the score. He tells truth 3/4 of the times that he speaks and randomly lies 1/4 of the times that he speaks. If he says it is a six, what is the probability that he actually got a six?

No Solution Yet Submitted by Vishal Gupta    
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is this right? Comment 6 of 6 |
A-- event that he got a six
E-- event in which he says it os six
 
we have to calculate P(A/E)

P(A/E)=P(A intersction E)/P(E)
= P(A) P(E/A) / P(E)

= ((1/6)* (3/4))/((3/4)*(1/6)+(1/4)*(5/6))
=3/8

  Posted by Ankush on 2010-11-17 12:10:54
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