A gambler throws a die and tells the score. He tells truth 3/4 of the times that he speaks and randomly lies 1/4 of the times that he speaks. If he says it is a six, what is the probability that he actually got a six?
A event that he got a six
E event in which he says it os six
we have to calculate P(A/E)
P(A/E)=P(A intersction E)/P(E)
= P(A) P(E/A) / P(E)
= ((1/6)* (3/4))/((3/4)*(1/6)+(1/4)*(5/6))
=3/8

Posted by Ankush
on 20101117 12:10:54 