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 A blue taxi (Posted on 2002-05-24)
A crime has occured in Carborough, involving a taxi. The police interviewed an eyewitness, who stated that the taxi involved was blue.

The police know that 85% of taxis in Carborough are blue, the other 15% being green. They also know that statistically witnesses in these situations tend to be correct 80% of the time - which means they report things wrong the other 20% of the time.

What is the probability that the taxi involved in the crime was actually blue?

 See The Solution Submitted by levik Rating: 3.7857 (14 votes)

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 Am I making this too simple? | Comment 8 of 17 |

If the witness has an 80% chance of being right about it being blue, then the probability is 80%. Am I stupid?
 Posted by Carey on 2002-05-28 10:30:47

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