You're in a hospital where your son was just born. As a nurse wheels your newborn into the nursery, she remarks that yours is the only boy in the room, and the rest of the babies are girls. Once in the nursery, boys are swaddled in blue blankets and girls are wrapped in pink.
A few minutes later, another baby is brought into the nursery and the baby's father, Tom, introduces himself to you. You couldn't see if his child was a boy or a girl, and before you get a chance to ask him, Tom has gone down the hall.
A few minutes later a baby, swaddled in blue, is brought out of the nursery.
What is the probability that Tom's newborn child is a boy?
(In reply to Easier gedanken
Please answer my questions carefully:
How can you explain that if we apply the same reasoning to an event o f"baby swaddled in pink" the results cease to be independent of the number of girls?
What can we deduce in the "pink case"?
By your reasoning - " Circle the "girl" word, n of 2n+1 times it comes from row one ,,,,"so for big n it is 1/2.
Anyone, explain the contradiction.
Simulation will not convince unless the model is coherent with the real word ,