Suppose we put eight white and two black balls into a bag and then draw forth the balls one at a time.

If we repeat this experiment many times, which draw is most likely to produce the

** first** black ball?

Try to guess (=estimate guided by intuition), then evaluate.

**You'd be surprised.**

Source: A.E. Lawrence, “Playing With Probability”

Mathematical Gazette,
(1969)

(In reply to

Intuition by Steve Herman)

I liked your reasoning and would prefer it over others as "the official explanation".

However it's obvious that the statement

** Let P(n) = prob that the nth draw is black" **

is NOT applicable to n=0.

When you state "**The smallest P2 is P2(0) = 0."**you probably mean

"The smallest P2 is **P2(1)** = 0." i.e. no way you get the last ball on the 1st drawing.

Please comment.

*Edited on ***September 5, 2015, 1:08 am**