(In reply to
re(4): solution by Charlie)
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bwwwwbwbwwwwbwwwwwwwwwww white exhausted
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bwwwbwwwwwwbwwwwwwwbb black exhausted a match
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bwwwwwwwwwwwwbwbwwbwwwww white exhausted
bwwbwwbwwwwwwwwwwwbwb black exhausted a match
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30 100
done
In 30 out of 100 trials there's a match between the first color to be exhausted and the first marble drawn. This is more consistent with a 1/3 probability than with a 2/3 probability.
DefDbl A-Z
Dim crlf$
Private Sub Form_Load()
Form1.Visible = True
Text1.Text = ""
crlf = Chr$(13) + Chr$(10)
For trial = 1 To 100
black = 5: white = 20
firstOne = 1
Do
tot = black + white
r = Int(Rnd(1) * tot + 1)
If r <= black Then
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & "b"
black = black - 1
If firstOne Then color1$ = "b": firstOne = 0
Else
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & "w"
white = white - 1
If firstOne Then color1$ = "w": firstOne = 0
End If
If black = 0 Then
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & " black exhausted"
If color1 = "b" Then matchct = matchct + 1: Text1.Text = Text1.Text & " a match"
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & crlf
Exit Do
End If
If white = 0 Then
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & " white exhausted"
If color1 = "w" Then matchct = matchct + 1: Text1.Text = Text1.Text & " a match"
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & crlf
Exit Do
End If
Loop
Next
Text1.Text = Text1.Text & matchct & Str(trial - 1) & crlf & " done"
End Sub
|
|
Posted by Charlie
on 2015-08-12 12:27:43 |
simulation of 100 trials
