I created six hundred coins. I tell you that each is red on one side, but may be red or blue on the other side. I flip each coin, and show you the resulting colors. You count 400 red and 200 blue. What is your best estimate of the number of coins that are red on both sides?

I flipped all the same coins again, and you count 350 red and 250 blue. How should you modify your estimate?

Wrong!  But close!

Upon closer inspection, the second part of the problem is harder than I thought.  I thought a thorough analysis would give the same answer as a quick one, but it doesn't.  It can still be solved analytically.

One other thing that could be discussed in this problem is what sort of assumptions must be made.

Posted by Tristan on 2006-12-22 21:23:11