There are two parcels, one marked CALCUTTA and one marked TATANAGAR which get lost in transit. One parcel is found and has the label partly torn (the label can be torn in any manner). It only has the letters 'TA' (adjacent letters). What is the probability that the recovered parcel was marked CALCUTTA?

(In reply to re(3): Posterior thinking (spoiler?) by broll)

I agree with Broll that there are many (too many) problems if one takes this seriously as a problem in (physical) probabilities. It appears from the irate reply, that the proposer had in mind a purely mathematical problem (since there three "TA"s, one on one package, and two on the other, the odds might be 1 in 3 on the package with one) and then concocted a preposterous scenario to make it appear a "word problem".  I would still prefer my original answer -- that because of these difficulties, and without any other facts, the answer might equally be either of the options (or, more likely, the TA-parcel would be handled the same as any other unknown -- probably put in a "dead letter" hold to see if anyone claims it -- presumably the intended recipient who did not get his shipment.  UPS faced with the situation for Utah vs Montana vs Minnesota vs one of the Dakotas, would not send it to Mississippi, or anywhere else.

 

Posted by ed bottemiller on 2010-10-29 16:51:10