The following table shows the base N followed by the prime value in decimal of 2014 and the fraction of the odd numbers tested thus far that meet this criterion.  The numbers of course will skew somewhat high, as they are reported only when a hit has just been made:

 decimal

N prime      fraction hits

9 1471 0.33333333333333

11 2677 0.50000000000000

27 39397 0.25000000000000

31 59617 0.28571428571429

37 101347 0.29411764705882

39 118681 0.33333333333333

53 297811 0.28000000000000

65 549319 0.25806451612903

69 657091 0.27272727272727

73 778111 0.28571428571429

83 1143661 0.27500000000000

95 1714849 0.26086956521739

111 2735377 0.24074074074074

137 5142847 0.20895522388060

161 8346727 0.18987341772152

179 11470861 0.18181818181818

185 12663439 0.18681318681319

17 0.17000000000000

at n =  203 there have been 17 hits on the 100 odd numbers tried, for a 17% probability.

The running count is continued to 1000 (actually 999, of course)

223 22179361 0.16363636363636

231 24653017 0.16666666666667

237 26624347 0.17094017094017

263 36383161 0.16153846153846

269 38930491 0.16541353383459

287 47280097 0.16197183098592

289 48275431 0.16783216783217

297 52396447 0.17006802721088

307 57869197 0.17105263157895

317 63710347 0.17197452229299

325 68656579 0.17391304347826

339 77916781 0.17261904761905

345 82127599 0.17543859649123

349 85017451 0.17919075144509

359 92536921 0.17977528089888

389 117728131 0.17098445595855

391 119553337 0.17525773195876

401 128962807 0.17587939698493

405 132860659 0.17910447761194

413 140890411 0.18048780487805

419 147120541 0.18269230769231

423 151374361 0.18571428571429

427 155709397 0.18867924528302

433 162365911 0.19069767441861

445 176242699 0.19004524886878

455 188393209 0.19026548672566

457 190888447 0.19383259911894

473 211648111 0.19148936170213

479 219804961 0.19327731092437

525 289406779 0.18007662835249

535 306261289 0.18045112781955

543 320206561 0.18148148148148

549 330938851 0.18315018315018

557 345617947 0.18411552346570

569 368440591 0.18374558303887

571 372339397 0.18661971830986

577 384200647 0.18815331010453

595 421290349 0.18581081081081

609 451733671 0.18481848184819

611 456198877 0.18750000000000

627 492984397 0.18589743589744

647 541680697 0.18322981366460

655 562023409 0.18404907975460

679 626094361 0.18047337278107

681 631643167 0.18289085545723

689 654166231 0.18367346938776

723 755866861 0.17777777777778

753 853916311 0.17333333333333

759 874491721 0.17460317460318

767 902436097 0.17539267015707

779 945459061 0.17525773195876

797 1012523947 0.17380352644836

821 1106776147 0.17114914425428

853 1241301811 0.16705882352941

861 1276555627 0.16783216783217

899 1453146301 0.16294642857143

927 1593196897 0.16017316017316

945 1687818199 0.15923566878981

969 1819707391 0.15734989648033

987 1923010597 0.15650406504065

997 1982054947 0.15694164989940

At the arbitrary cutoff point of 999, the probability is down to about 15.7%:

78 0.15662650602410

 s$ = "2014"

 nlim = 1000

 For n = 5 To nlim Step 2

   denom = denom + 1

   v = 0

   For i = 1 To 4

     v = v * n + Val(Mid(s$, i, 1))

   Next

   If prmdiv(v) = v Then

     ct = ct + 1

     Text1.Text = Text1.Text & n & Str(v) & mform(ct / denom, " 0.00000000000000") & crlf

     DoEvents

   End If

   If n = 203 Then

     Text1.Text = Text1.Text & crlf & ct & mform(ct / denom, " 0.00000000000000") & crlf & crlf

   End If

 Next n

 

 Text1.Text = Text1.Text & ct & mform(ct / denom, " 0.00000000000000")

Function prmdiv(num)

 Dim n, dv, q

 If num = 1 Then prmdiv = 1: Exit Function

 n = Abs(num): If n > 0 Then limit = Sqr(n) Else limit = 0

 If limit <> Int(limit) Then limit = Int(limit + 1)

 dv = 2: GoSub DivideIt

 dv = 3: GoSub DivideIt

 dv = 5: GoSub DivideIt

 dv = 7

 Do Until dv > limit

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 4 '11

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 2 '13

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 4 '17

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 2 '19

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 4 '23

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 6 '29

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 2 '31

   GoSub DivideIt: dv = dv + 6 '37

 Loop

 If n > 1 Then prmdiv = n

 Exit Function

DivideIt:

 Do

  q = Int(n / dv)

  If q * dv = n And n > 0 Then

    prmdiv = dv: Exit Function

   Else

    Exit Do

  End If

 Loop

 Return

End Function