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Oh no, not Monty again! (Posted on 2015-06-17) Difficulty: 3 of 5

The Monty Hall problem is a well known brain teaser. Here is a variant.

You're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three boxes. Two boxes each contain $1000; the third contains $4000.

You pick one box and the host picks another. The host removes this box, which contains $1000, and adds $1000 to your box. He then offers you the choice to switch to the remaining box.

Do you switch, or stick with your original box?

See The Solution Submitted by broll    
Rating: 5.0000 (3 votes)

Comments: ( Back to comment list | You must be logged in to post comments.)
re(2): $1K is better than a goat, at any rate! | Comment 5 of 9 |
(In reply to re: $1K is better than a goat, at any rate! by broll)

I got the same thing as Jyqm. EV is $3000 whether you switch or not, so the answer depends on personal preference. Is it better to have a 2/3 chance of $2K and a 1/3 chance of $5K, or a 2/3 chance of $4K and a 1/3 chance of $1K?


Given that the first option is lower variance, has a lower minimum, and a higher maximum, I'd lean towards not switching but it's a matter of personal preference.

  Posted by Oren on 2015-06-23 20:13:54
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