The Monty Hall problem is a well known brain teaser. Here is a variant.
You're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three boxes. Two boxes each contain $1000; the third contains $4000.
You pick one box and the host picks another. The host removes this box, which contains $1000, and adds $1000 to your box. He then offers you the choice to switch to the remaining box.
Do you switch, or stick with your original box?
(In reply to
re: $1K is better than a goat, at any rate! by broll)
I got the same thing as Jyqm. EV is $3000 whether you switch or not, so the answer depends on personal preference. Is it better to have a 2/3 chance of $2K and a 1/3 chance of $5K, or a 2/3 chance of $4K and a 1/3 chance of $1K?
Given that the first option is lower variance, has a lower minimum, and a higher maximum, I'd lean towards not switching but it's a matter of personal preference.
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Posted by Oren
on 2015-06-23 20:13:54 |