Suppose we put eight white and two black balls into a bag and then draw forth the balls one at a time.
If we repeat this experiment many times, which draw is most likely to produce the first black ball?

Try to guess (=estimate guided by intuition), then evaluate.
You'd be surprised.

Source: A.E. Lawrence, “Playing With Probability”
Mathematical Gazette, (1969)

(In reply to More info than you maybe wanted by Jer)

Found it very interesting.

Thanks.

Posted by Ady TZIDON on 2015-09-03 03:45:52