Some researchers are going to put you to sleep.
During the two days that your sleep will last, they will briefly wake you up either once or twice, depending on the toss of a fair coin (Heads: once; Tails: twice). After each waking, they
will put you to back to sleep with a drug that makes you forget that waking.
When you are first awakened, to what degree ought you believe that the outcome of the coin toss is Heads?
There's a huge literature on this problem in the fields of psychology and philosophy as well as math. Here are a few cites.
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/12603/3/merged_document_4.pdf
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11812/
https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.html
http://fitelson.org/probability/lecture_20_2x2.pdf
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Posted by xdog
on 2018-01-22 18:16:01 |
No Subject
