All about flooble | fun stuff | Get a free chatterbox | Free JavaScript | Avatars    
perplexus dot info

Home > Probability
Gambler’s dilemma (Posted on 2021-05-28) Difficulty: 3 of 5
A wealthy mathematician WG offered you a proposition you cannot refuse: participate for one hour exactly in one of the following games:

a. Throw four regular fair dice and if at least one six appears you get a dollar, otherwise you pay a dollar.
b. Keep executing throws of two fair dice until both show a six - you win a dollar , but if 25 throws were unsuccessful you lose a dollar and begin a new round of 25 or less (when 2 sixes appeared earlier).
If the time limit expires within the “25 throw” sequence the current run is aborted.

WG thinks that in both cases the chances are about fifty-fifty

1. What would be your choice assuming you were given 60 seconds to make up your mind?
2.Solve analytically what would be the expected winnings in each of the cases.
3. Get the answers by simulating both cases.

Assume that a throw lasts 10 seconds and the payouts are executed in no time. Please compare the results of 1, 2, 3.

No Solution Yet Submitted by Ady TZIDON    
Rating: 3.0000 (1 votes)

Comments: ( Back to comment list | You must be logged in to post comments.)
Question re: Part 3 simulation results - not working? | Comment 4 of 8 |
(In reply to Part 3 simulation results by tomarken)

I agree with Charlie's results, in particular that you'd expect to play about 19.x rounds of game B in an hour, and therefore expect to profit about $0.20.  


For some reason, my simulation correctly produces the 19 game average but also returns an average profit of about $0.60.  Haven't figured out why yet, perhaps someone more coding-inclined can point out my mistake?

  Posted by tomarken on 2021-05-28 12:56:15
Please log in:
Login:
Password:
Remember me:
Sign up! | Forgot password


Search:
Search body:
Forums (0)
Newest Problems
Random Problem
FAQ | About This Site
Site Statistics
New Comments (0)
Unsolved Problems
Top Rated Problems
This month's top
Most Commented On

Chatterbox:
Copyright © 2002 - 2024 by Animus Pactum Consulting. All rights reserved. Privacy Information