Suppose an illness that can affect 1% of the people. Also assume that there is a test for that illness, that gives the correct result 99% of the times.

If you take that test, and receive a POSITIVE result, should you worry much?

If you take it again, and once more get a POSITIVE, should you worry then?

How many consecutive POSITIVEs would you have to get in order to be sure that the chances of a wrong diagnostic are 1 in a million?

Precisely four  consecutive POSITIVE, would make it certain that the  chances of a wrong diagnostic are 1 in a million.

Edited on August 21, 2023, 11:02 pm

Posted by K Sengupta on 2023-04-30 22:52:11