Each of Abner, Berenice, Calvin and Dolores is either a knight who always tells the truth, or a liar who always speaks falsely, or a knave who alternates between lying and telling the truth in any order.
They say:
- Abner: Berenice is a liar.
- Berenice: I am a knight.
- Calvin: If asked, Berenice would say that she is a knight.
- Dolores: I am a knight.
Given that each of the four individuals being any of the 3 types is equally likely, and all the four statements are simultaneous and independent, determine the probability that:
- Abner is a knight, Berenice is a liar and each of Calvin and Dolores is a knight.
*** For an extra challenge, solve this puzzle without taking resort to a computer program/excel solver aided methodology.
(In reply to
re: Extra Challenge Accepted (spoiler) by Charlie)
Yes, there is obviously some ambiguity. It is not clear whether Calvin is predicting her simultaneous statement, or her next statement, or her answer at any given future time. I guess I am assuming the third option, namely that Calvin is he saying that whenever Berenice is asked, she will say that she is a knight.
re(2): Extra Challenge Accepted (spoiler)
