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A perfect appearance (Posted on 2024-02-06) Difficulty: 2 of 5
A faultless die is thrown 12 times.
Evaluate the probability of each of the numbers (1 to 6) appearing twice.

See The Solution Submitted by Ady TZIDON    
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Solution solution | Comment 1 of 2
(12! / 2^6) / 6^12

Numerically:

>> (factorial(12) / 2^6) / 6^12
ans =
       0.00343828589391861
>> 
              
for a 0.3438 % probability or about 1 in 291.              

A simulation is consistent with this:

match='112233445566';
ct=0;
for trial=1:1000000
  throw=match(randi(12,[1,12]));
  if isequal(sort(throw),match)
    ct=ct+1;
  end
end
ct/trial
trial/ct

>> aPerfectAppearance
ans =
                  0.003495
ans =
          286.123032904149
>> 


  Posted by Charlie on 2024-02-06 08:29:36
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