A basketball player who shoots 80% from the free-throw line goes to the charity stripe with just 1.7 seconds remaining in a basketball game.
He has two shots, and his team is trailing by two points.

What is the probability that he will make only one of the two, and why?

(Assume that he is trying, of course, for his team to win the game.)

(In reply to re: Simple by Roger)

no..that is the probability of getting just the first one.
To make only one shot of two you take 80% * 20% for making the first and missing the second, plus 20% * 80% for missing the first and making the second, and get a 32% chance of making only one of the two. The complete breakdown is:

64% of making both (80% * 80%)
%32 of making exactly one (80%*20% + 20%*80%)
%4 of making neither (20%*20%)

Posted by Brian Wainscott on 2003-08-15 11:11:09