A basketball player who shoots 80% from the free-throw line goes to the charity stripe with just 1.7 seconds remaining in a basketball game.
He has two shots, and his team is trailing by two points.

What is the probability that he will make only one of the two, and why?

(Assume that he is trying, of course, for his team to win the game.)

(In reply to re: Solution by Lewis)

The 16%, as ethan found it, is a wrong explanation, only accounting for one of the cases, making only the first short or the second shot, not both (see Brian Wainscott's comment). As Bryan realized, he will only try to make the second shot if he has made the first one anyway, so that answer is close to the actual answer by coincidence (there is one more very minor consideration that I made).

Putting 'Games' as the category served as a hint that this is not just a straightforward probability problem. Also, many people got the same answer by leaving some considerations out, as Bryan did by the correct method, so maybe I was playing 'games' with their heads?

Posted by DJ on 2003-08-15 18:23:11