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Expected Number of Tosses (Posted on 2025-01-28) Difficulty: 3 of 5
Mac is idly tossing two dice when he decides to see how many tosses it would take to go from 1 to 6 in order. The rules are to toss the two dice until one or the other or both show a 1. Then, toss until a 2 shows. However, if both a 1 and a 2 show at the same time, both can be used.

He then tosses for a 3 and similarly for other numbers. What is the expected number of tosses to go from 1 to 6?

No Solution Yet Submitted by K Sengupta    
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Some Thoughts re: failed analytic attempt; switch to simulation | Comment 3 of 4 |
(In reply to failed analytic attempt; switch to simulation by Charlie)

In 600,000,000 trials

number of times      occurrences   fraction    average
two numbers were   in 600 million   of the  expectation
found in one toss      trials       cases   for when this
                                              happens
 0                   219977649    0.3666294   19.6365482 
 1                   287888055    0.4798134   16.3639145
 2                    88525684    0.1475428   13.0908114
 3                     3608612    0.0060144    9.8180433
avg =
          17.0414662833333

  Posted by Charlie on 2025-01-28 11:20:50
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