1/2
Compare Alex's 20 flips to Bert's first 20 spins. By symmetry, there
is (a) a X chance that Alex gets more heads, (b) a X chance that Bert
gets more heads, and (c) a 1-2X chance that they tie.
If Bert's 21st spin is a head, then he wins all of (b) and (c), but
none of (a); the best he can get from (a) is a tie, which Alex wins.
If Bert's 21st spin is a tail, then he wins all of (c), but none of
(a) or (b).
Bert's overall chance of winning is (1/2)(X + (1-2X)) + (1/2)(X) = 1/2. |