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Evaluate further probabilities (Posted on 2016-02-03) Difficulty: 3 of 5
Generate a number by the following process:

1) Pick a number from 0 to 9 for the first digit. If the number is 0 the process terminates with the number 0.
2) Pick another number from 0 to 9. If it is greater than the previous number, append it to the previous to create a number with one more digit. If not then terminate the process.
3) Repeat step 2 until the process terminates.

The resulting number will be n digits long and have strictly increasing digits where n is an integer from 0 to 9.

Find the probability distribution for n.

Notes: Numbers are chosen with a uniform random probability.
0 is considered a 0 digit number.
This is an extension of Evaluate probabilities.

No Solution Yet Submitted by Jer    
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Poeliers Comment 2 of 2 |
This probability problem adds an interesting twist to the concept introduced in the previous puzzle. In this extended version, we're asked to determine the probability distribution for the number of digits (n) in the resulting number generated by the given process.

To approach this problem, we can think of it as a branching process where, at each step, we either terminate with a digit or continue to the next step. Let's break it down:

The first digit is chosen with a uniform random probability from 0 to 9. If it's 0, the process terminates with n=0, which happens with a probability of 1/10.

If the first digit is not 0, we move to the next history essay writing service step, where we pick another digit. To keep the digits strictly increasing, this digit must be greater than the previous one. The probability of picking a digit greater than the first one is 1/2 (5 out of 10 choices: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). If we succeed here, we move on to the next step, and if not, we terminate the process.

In the third step, the probability of picking a digit greater than the second one is 4/9 (since 4 out of the remaining 9 choices meet the condition of being greater). If successful, we continue to the next step, and if not, we terminate the process.

We repeat this process until we either reach 9 digits (n=9) or fail to pick a greater digit. The probability of reaching 9 digits strictly increasing is 1/2 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 * 1/5 * 1/4 * 1/3 * 1/2, which is a product of the probabilities at each step.

Now, we can compute the probabilities for each possible value of n:

  • P(n=0) = 1/10 (terminated at the first step)
  • P(n=1) = (1/10) * (1/2) (terminated at the second step)
  • P(n=2) = (1/10) * (1/2) * (4/9) (terminated at the third step)
  • ...
  • P(n=9) = 1/2 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 * 1/5 * 1/4 * 1/3 * 1/2 (terminated at the ninth step)

This probability distribution for n should provide a clear understanding of how likely it is to generate numbers of different lengths using the given process. It's a fascinating problem that combines probability and combinatorics.

  Posted by Arthur Swanson on 2023-10-05 04:19:48
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