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 The carnival game (Posted on 2003-09-18)
You look at a carnival game. The person running it says, "Just reach your hand into this bag. There are 9 yellow balls and 1 red ball in the bag. You get 4 chances to pull out the red ball. (You have to put the ball you drew back before you draw another ball.) You only have to pay one dollar to play, and you get 3 dollars if you pull out the red ball!"

Assuming the person running the game is telling the truth, and the balls only differ in color, would you expect to make a net profit or a net loss on this game?

 See The Solution Submitted by Gamer Rating: 3.5556 (9 votes)

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 Solution Comment 30 of 30 |
You would make a profit on the game (or you should), for you would win 40% of the time. Say you played ten times. You would pay \$10 to play, and 4 times would win \$3, giving you \$12 (a gain of \$2). That is, if you follow probability.
 Posted by Stephen Ticsay on 2005-04-16 04:45:00

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