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Beat The Book (Posted on 2021-03-10) Difficulty: 3 of 5
An online sportsbook is advertising a “Risk Free” promotion for new users: If your first wager loses, you will be awarded a “free bet” in the amount of your wager (up to $1,000).

In reading the terms and conditions of the promotion, you note that unlike a normal wager, a “free bet” does not return the stake along with any winnings. e.g. if you wager $1,000 cash on a selection with odds of 1.95 and win, you’d get back $1,950 (your $1,000 stake is returned, plus $950 in winnings); if you’d placed a $1,000 “free bet” on that same selection, you’d only be paid the $950 in winnings.

For this puzzle make the following simplifying assumptions:
- The sportsbook reduces the fair odds of all of their selections by 2.5%. For example, the true odds on selection with a 50% probability of occurring should be 2.00. However the sportsbook pays only 2 * (1 - 0.025) = 1.95.
- The sportsbook knows the true probabilities of all events occurring, and uniformly prices all selections with the same 2.5% margin.
- The sportsbook offers a large enough variety of markets that any odds you seek are available for you to bet on.

a) Determine a strategy to maximize the expected value of this promotion.

b) Assuming you wanted to make this a truly risk-free proposition, maximize the amount of guaranteed profit you can get out of this promotion.

See The Solution Submitted by tomarken    
Rating: 4.5000 (2 votes)

Comments: ( Back to comment list | You must be logged in to post comments.)
Hints/Tips re: Possible Solution | Comment 6 of 10 |
(In reply to Possible Solution by broll)

I think you're on the right track although it's unclear to me how you arrived at your conclusion. 


Obviously for an event with three possible outcomes, betting on all three guarantees one of them will win but if it pays 2/1 you'll end up even (in reality it would pay slightly less than 2/1 due to the margin so you'd end up with a net loss - otherwise casinos wouldn't exist!)



  Posted by tomarken on 2021-03-12 08:29:06
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