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A Coin Game (Posted on 2004-05-20) Difficulty: 3 of 5
Alex flips a fair coin 20 times. Bert spins a fair coin 21 times. Bert wins if he gets more heads than Alex, else Alex wins. Note that Alex wins if there is a tie. What is the probability that Bert wins?

  Submitted by Brian Smith    
Rating: 3.5000 (4 votes)
Solution: (Hide)
1/2

Compare Alex's 20 flips to Bert's first 20 spins. By symmetry, there is (a) a X chance that Alex gets more heads, (b) a X chance that Bert gets more heads, and (c) a 1-2X chance that they tie.

If Bert's 21st spin is a head, then he wins all of (b) and (c), but none of (a); the best he can get from (a) is a tie, which Alex wins.

If Bert's 21st spin is a tail, then he wins all of (c), but none of (a) or (b).

Bert's overall chance of winning is (1/2)(X + (1-2X)) + (1/2)(X) = 1/2.

Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)
  Subject Author Date
SolutionSolutionMath Man2018-06-29 21:16:25
SolutionPuzzle SolutionK Sengupta2009-02-26 15:31:58
No SubjectCharleyA.2007-04-19 12:47:43
answerK Sengupta2007-03-09 05:07:21
Probability under a microscopeCarlos Da Peanut2004-05-27 22:20:09
Solutionre: SolutionPopstar Dave2004-05-23 02:59:13
SolutionSolutionGururaj2004-05-22 04:31:27
Solutionre: Assuming .5 solutionCharlie2004-05-20 22:12:41
re: flip vs spinIain2004-05-20 17:12:04
SolutionAssuming .5 solutionJer2004-05-20 14:19:31
SolutionAnswerOskar2004-05-20 14:17:57
Questionflip vs spinJer2004-05-20 14:08:34
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