In the "Not-always-lying politician"
problem, what's the probability that a particular sentence is true?
According to the rules, there are 144 possible ways in which he can make ten statements. Of these 144 ways (a total of 1440 statements) a total of 1020 individual statements are true. This leaves 320 lies out of 1440 statements, or a total probability of .291666667 of lying. Similarly, the probability of telling the truth is 1020/1440, or .708333333.
Posted by Eric
on 2004-07-02 14:49:49