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How often does he lie? (Posted on 2004-07-02)

In the "Not-always-lying politician" problem, what's the probability that a particular sentence is true?

See The Solution Submitted by Federico Kereki

Rating: 2.5000 (4 votes)

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Maybe

| Comment 3 of 8 |

3/4ths.
1/2 chance he told a lie previously, making this statement true, 1/2 chance he told the truth in which case has a 1/2 * 1/2 chance of being the truth or a lie, so 1/2 + 1/4th = 3/4ths.

Posted by Max on 2004-07-02 15:37:21

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