In the "Not-always-lying politician"
problem, what's the probability that a particular sentence is true?
1/2 chance he told a lie previously, making this statement true, 1/2 chance he told the truth in which case has a 1/2 * 1/2 chance of being the truth or a lie, so 1/2 + 1/4th = 3/4ths.
Posted by Max
on 2004-07-02 15:37:21