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Lying gambler (Posted on 2010-10-21) Difficulty: 1 of 5
A gambler throws a die and tells the score. He tells truth 3/4 of the times that he speaks and randomly lies 1/4 of the times that he speaks. If he says it is a six, what is the probability that he actually got a six?

No Solution Yet Submitted by Vishal Gupta    
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Randomly interpreting | Comment 2 of 6 |
It appears that the probability of 3/4 is as close as we can get, since the concept of "randomly lies" is not defined, and is not clearly a complete disjunction with "he tells the truth..."  Perhaps it means that he speaks randomly 1/4 of the time (in which case he will sometimes speak an accurate statement by inadvertence). Perhaps it means that he deliberately lies 1/4 of the time.  What is our probability of deciding (correctly) what the question means? 
  Posted by ed bottemiller on 2010-10-21 16:31:30
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