There are two parcels, one marked CALCUTTA and one marked TATANAGAR which get lost in transit.
One parcel is found and has the label partly torn (the label can be torn in any manner). It only has the letters 'TA' (adjacent letters).
What is the probability that the recovered parcel was marked CALCUTTA?
(In reply to re: Posterior thinking (spoiler?)
Really troubles me also whether the answer should be 2/3, 1/3 or 4/11, 7/11
A simulation might present the true picture. Charlie? hehe
@ edbottemiller: assume you dont know who pasted the stickers. Assume the pasters were illeterate and could have posted the stickers in any part of the parcels. Assume you have no idea of the shape, color, weight of the parcel. Assume that both the packeges were on board a ship that sank along with the person pasting stickers and one floating box reached the shore after days at sea. That might lessen your confusion a bit.