A crime has occured in Carborough, involving a taxi. The police interviewed an eyewitness, who stated that the taxi involved was blue.

The police know that 85% of taxis in Carborough are blue, the other 15% being green. They also know that statistically witnesses in these situations tend to be correct 80% of the time - which means they report things wrong the other 20% of the time.

What is the probability that the taxi involved in the crime was actually blue?

If the witness has an 80% chance of being right about it being blue, then the probability is 80%. Am I stupid?

Posted by Carey on 2002-05-28 10:30:47