Suppose we put eight white and two black balls into a bag and then draw forth the balls one at a time.
If we repeat this experiment many times, which draw is most likely to produce the first black ball?

Try to guess (=estimate guided by intuition), then evaluate.
You'd be surprised.

Source: A.E. Lawrence, “Playing With Probability”
Mathematical Gazette, (1969)

(In reply to re: Intuition by Ady TZIDON)

Yes, thanks Ady.  I did mean P1(1) and p2(1), not P1(0) and P2(0).  I have edited the original comment.

Posted by Steve Herman on 2015-09-05 08:35:20