When Raymond Smullyan was teaching probability at Princeton, he told one class about the birthday paradox - the fact that if there are 23 or more people in a room, the chances are greater than 50 percent that at least two of them share a birthday.
There were only 19 students in the class, so the chances of sharing a birthday were quite small.
One boy said: “I’ll bet you a quarter that two of us here have the same birthday.
I give you my word that I don’t know the birthday of anyone here other than my own.
Nevertheless I’ll bet you as I have said.”
Smulllyan took the bet and lost.
Why?
Source: A mixed bag by R.S. 2016
Excellent point, broll!
OTOH, it's possible that the twins were fraternal and didn't look alike (I have twin granddaughters who don't even look like cousins.)
Another thought: if the twins were born on different days - say one a few minutes before midnight and the other a few minutes after - then Smullyan would have had the last laugh!
A nice puzzle on an age-old topic.
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