perplexus.info :: Probability : Known and Unknown Balls

Known and Unknown Balls (Posted on 2010-05-19)

An urn contains 6 green balls and an unknown number, which is ≤ 6, of blue balls. Three balls are drawn successively at random, and not replaced and are all found to be blue.

Determine the probability that a green ball will be drawn at the next draw.

Submitted by K Sengupta

Rating: 5.0000 (1 votes)

Solution: (Hide)

The required probability is 677/909 =~ 0.74477447744
For an explanation, refer to the solution submitted by Charlie in this location, and the rejoinder by Steve Herman in this location.

Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)

Subject	Author	Date
Posterior probabilities	Steve Herman	2010-05-20 10:00:38
solution (spoiler)	Charlie	2010-05-19 13:29:27
Possible Solution ... but not sure	Syzygy	2010-05-19 12:49:45
Not enough information	Steve Herman	2010-05-19 12:04:12

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