All about flooble | fun stuff | Get a free chatterbox | Free JavaScript | Avatars    
perplexus dot info

Home > General
Prosecutor Fallacy Poser (Posted on 2022-09-10) Difficulty: 3 of 5
Consider this scenario:

The city of Kalsville has a population very close to one million. For purposes of facile explanation of the scenario we will assume it to be precisely one million.

Detectives in Kalsville are working on a crime and have put together a description of the perpetrator, based on things such as height, a tattoo, a limp, an earring. The crime itself was committed in such a way, that no visitor from outside the city could have committed it. Let us assume that only one person in 10,000 fits the description. On a routine patrol the next day, police officers see a person fitting the description. The person is arrested and brought to trial solely on the fact that he fits the description.

During the trial, the prosecutor tells the jury that since only one person in 10,000 fits the description (a true statement), it is highly unlikely (far beyond a reasonable doubt) that an innocent person fits the description (again a true statement), and therefore it is highly unlikely that the defendant is innocent.

If you were a member of the jury, would you cast a "guilty" vote?
If yes, what is your level of confidence?
If no, what is wrong with the prosecutor's reasoning?

Note: For the purposes of the problem, assume that the law-enforcement, legal, and judicial authorities in Kalsville follow the same legal and juridical provisions governing all well-known U.S. cities.

*** Adapted from an original problem by David Morin.

No Solution Yet Submitted by K Sengupta    
Rating: 4.0000 (1 votes)

Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)
  Subject Author Date
No SubjectK Sengupta2022-12-15 04:19:17
Buy Beautiful Earrings in Atlanta GAjonemartin2022-12-15 02:40:21
No SubjectK Sengupta2022-10-21 12:01:04
ink pens personalizedKyra Head2022-10-21 11:51:40
SolutionsolutionCharlie2022-09-10 11:48:41
Please log in:
Remember me:
Sign up! | Forgot password

Search body:
Forums (1)
Newest Problems
Random Problem
FAQ | About This Site
Site Statistics
New Comments (4)
Unsolved Problems
Top Rated Problems
This month's top
Most Commented On

Copyright © 2002 - 2023 by Animus Pactum Consulting. All rights reserved. Privacy Information