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Could you please repeat that? (Posted on 2016-04-20) Difficulty: 3 of 5

At a craps table, I have a wager with the house that the shooter will make 4 'the hard way' i.e. {2,2}, at odds of 7:1 (with such bets, it doesn't matter what the shooter himself wants to score).

The shooter, an old man, tosses the dice. Unfortunately he is short-sighted, and can't see what he rolled, so he asks me, 'Can you see a 2 down there?'

To tell the truth, I am a bit near-sighted myself, and a touch hard of hearing, so I answer 'Could you please repeat that?' The old man says, ''What do you see down there? ' and I duly reply, 'I can see a 2, but I'm not sure what the other is'

What is the probability that I won my wager?

What would have been the probability, had I answered the shooter's original question?

See The Solution Submitted by broll    
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Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)
  Subject Author Date
re(2): Laying out the possibilitiesCharlie2016-04-20 14:53:16
Some Thoughtsre: Laying out the possibilitiestomarken2016-04-20 14:06:57
SolutionLaying out the possibilitiesCharlie2016-04-20 10:36:25
SolutionMaybe the solution?tomarken2016-04-20 10:00:23
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