perplexus.info :: Probability : Boneheaded Bookie

Boneheaded Bookie (Posted on 2005-11-26)

For the PerplexusBowl match between the Pascal Probabilities and the Random Results, a bookie was offering the following payoffs:

PP to win in normal time, 3 to 2

RR to win in normal time, 2 to 1

PP to win in overtime, 7 to 1

RR to win in overtime, 9 to 1

(The first line means that if you bet $2 on PP to win in normal time, and it does, you get your money back plus $3.)

Without knowing anything about football or the involved teams or the actual probabilities, can you show why these payoffs are illogical?

Submitted by Federico Kereki

Rating: 4.0000 (5 votes)

Solution: (Hide)

If a player bet $240 on PP to win, $200 on RR to win, $75 on PP to win in OT, and $60 on RR to win in OT (a total of $575) he would receive $600 back in any case, for a 4.35% sure profit.

Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)

Subject	Author	Date
Some thoughts	Dej Mar	2013-04-11 05:15:04
No Subject	Matt Van Winkle	2005-11-28 00:48:36
Another way	e.g.	2005-11-27 22:00:56
re(2): better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)	Mindy Rodriguez	2005-11-27 11:30:48
re: better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)	Vernon Lewis	2005-11-27 04:47:29
better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)	Mindy Rodriguez	2005-11-26 21:25:16
No Subject	pcbouhid	2005-11-26 12:14:25
betting spree	Vernon Lewis	2005-11-26 08:02:57

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