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Boneheaded Bookie (Posted on 2005-11-26) Difficulty: 3 of 5
For the PerplexusBowl match between the Pascal Probabilities and the Random Results, a bookie was offering the following payoffs:

  • PP to win in normal time, 3 to 2
  • RR to win in normal time, 2 to 1
  • PP to win in overtime, 7 to 1
  • RR to win in overtime, 9 to 1

  • (The first line means that if you bet $2 on PP to win in normal time, and it does, you get your money back plus $3.)

    Without knowing anything about football or the involved teams or the actual probabilities, can you show why these payoffs are illogical?

      Submitted by Federico Kereki    
    Rating: 4.0000 (5 votes)
    Solution: (Hide)
    If a player bet $240 on PP to win, $200 on RR to win, $75 on PP to win in OT, and $60 on RR to win in OT (a total of $575) he would receive $600 back in any case, for a 4.35% sure profit.

    Comments: ( You must be logged in to post comments.)
      Subject Author Date
    Some ThoughtsSome thoughtsDej Mar2013-04-11 05:15:04
    Some ThoughtsNo SubjectMatt Van Winkle2005-11-28 00:48:36
    SolutionAnother waye.g.2005-11-27 22:00:56
    re(2): better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)Mindy Rodriguez2005-11-27 11:30:48
    re: better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)Vernon Lewis2005-11-27 04:47:29
    better betting spree (with apologies to Vernon)Mindy Rodriguez2005-11-26 21:25:16
    SolutionNo Subjectpcbouhid2005-11-26 12:14:25
    Solutionbetting spreeVernon Lewis2005-11-26 08:02:57
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